If Ice Dice and Ice Spice had a little one, that infant would be me.
And whilst the earlier mentioned is primarily an justification to drop in some music films later, it doesn’t make it any fewer correct: I’m colder than a penguin in a freezer on New Year’s Working day in Antarctica in the course of a chilly snap with anyone dropping ice cubes down my back again while singing Cold as Ice by Foreigner.
Yeah. I’m cold.
My on-line sports betting? Cold. My DFS play? Flipping freezing.
Now granted — these is the gambler’s lifestyle. We all know this. And it is particularly true for significant-subject DFS tourney gamers like me, wherever months of losses are wiped out with one massive earn.
But right now, this NFL season, particularly these last few weeks? Nope. Not even shut. Just … wrong, around and in excess of and around once again.
It has not been a excellent working day.
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At this point, and at the risk of mixing motion picture quotations with pressured-fed tunes films, this is my most desperate hour. Assist me, Captain Jack Andrews! You’re my only hope.
“I imagine narrowing your focus is the best realistic assistance for a DFS participant,” expert bettor Andrews told me. “Often players become overconfident from successful and have a tendency to want to uncover additional issues to bet on. That prospects to them owning significantly less target on factors they truly have talent on. You could also want to slender your focus relative to the amount of bettors you are competing against. Focus on smaller sized swimming pools.”
Andrews observed I’m much from alone in this very little corner of distress he felt the exact same way a few yrs in the past, so much so he felt compelled to set a online video alongside one another to assistance other individuals.
In addition to urging them to slender their emphasis, Andrews also tells people today in the freezer to take edge of comps, glance for reduced-hanging fruit, reduce undesirable habits, and of study course, to just give up for a when.
All good tips, and all truly worth viewing in the online video for a more in-depth look.
In my case, I’m basically a street underdog to earn something this certain week, as I’m flying throughout the state for a family members affair and will be putting in my DFS lineups from an Airbnb. I know I won’t have as considerably time to focus, won’t have the time to do my regular analysis. Perhaps which is what I require. It’s possible I’ve absent as well deep finding out Cover 2. It’s possible I will need to acquire a smaller stage back to get a large leap ahead.
Or maybe I need to just view Ice Spice and Nicki Minaj tear it up.
The +1000 or additional parlay of the 7 days
Initially off, these — and other lines for the remainder of the column — may well be a small stale by the time you study this. Experienced to place this together Wednesday and Thursday thanks to my travel designs. So with that out of the way …
And now I’m -10 at this +1000 or far more parlay issue and having a smidge fearful. Attempted a pair of SGPs final 7 days surrounding the Titans-Bucs match, and — substantially like I laid out over — boy was I improper.
This week, let us give ESPN Guess a try out: Cowboys -10.5 at the Panthers, Jaguars -7 at residence towards the Titans, Lions -7.5 at dwelling in opposition to the Bears, Seahawks -1 around the Rams in L.A., and in excess of 41.5 in the 49ers-Bucs recreation. This will come in at +2552. I’m heading for it.
Rationale? I feel we have attained the wheat and chaff portion of the NFL period. The 4 favorites are plainly the top-quality groups, and as this sort of, I’m betting they will all protect. As for the around in the 49ers-Bucs video game, both equally offenses in fact established up really nicely versus the opposing defense. Aside from, the Niners could get to 41.5 them selves.
The on-paper, no doubt, a few-workforce teaser that is certain to lose
Fifth reduction in a row! Horrible. Down to 4-6. Scarcely worthwhile at +160 a pop. Only saving grace is I think every person else had the Bengals and Ravens in their teasers.
This 7 days, at BetMGM, I’m getting the Lions -1.5 towards the Bears, the Dolphins -6.5 against the Raiders, and the Payments -1 in opposition to the Jets. What could go improper …
Favored that would make me nervous
Hey, received something suitable and moved up to 4-6 as I stated the Saints designed me nervous versus the Vikings. This one particular was under no circumstances in doubt, and these Vikings — with their intense protection and Josh Dobbs adding some further spice to the offense — are all of a unexpected kinda exciting.
This week, the Chargers providing a few points to the Packers in Environmentally friendly Bay helps make me anxious. An underachieving warm-weather workforce likely to Green Bay? Not a good glimpse.
Participant props I like
Went -3 very last week, because of class. Now down to 16-20. Being that I have to file this early, there’s important little out there I like presently, but I will sprinkle a bit on …
Jahmyr Gibbs, over 40.5 dashing yards at -110 at guess365: Did they not get the memo this is, at worst, a split backfield? Gibbs must crush this number.
Trey McBride, anytime touchdown, +240 at Caesars: The person is acquiring tons of seems to be, and the Texans have been roasted by limited ends all year.
Trey McBride received a whopping 46% of the Cardinals 1st-examine targets in 7 days 8
Which is the one-maximum FR share by a TE in a match this year @FantasyPtsData
+ 88% route share (enormous for TE)
+ ranks next (2.26) only to Travis Kelce (2.97) between TE in yards for every route operate
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 31, 2023
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
Second week in a row, bunch of entries, zero cashed. I informed you — I’m ice appropriate now.
My mortal lock 5-star only for my best prospects just can’t drop confirmed ideal wager of the week
Down to 4-6 just after “slamming the over” in the Titans-Bucs activity. Gonna go stick my head in the freezer.
This 7 days … another in excess of. Why not. Monday evening, the 45.5 number in the Chiefs-Eagles game seems to be way too lower to me, even in this current offensive financial state.