The Democrats enjoy a majority in the Senate due to VP Kamala Harris’s tiebreaker. That technicality might not be enough to give them control of the Senate in 2024.

Of the 34 Senate seats headed for an election in 2024, 20 (59%) are Democrat seats while 11 are held by Republicans. The Dems need to hold all of these seats and ideally gain. But as you’ll see with our political odds coverage that might not be possible.

How the 2020 US Presidential Election Impacts the 2024 US Senate Election?

I think it’s important to look at how the 2020 US Presidential Elections went in the states that will be represented in the 2024 US Senate Elections. Basically, we’re trying to see if recent voting patterns show a vulnerability.

Does the party of the incumbent Senator match how the state voted in the most recent Presidential Elections?

2024 US Senate Elections vs 2020 US Presidential Election
State Party of Senator Presidential Election
Arizona Independent (Sinema)* Democrats
California Democrats (Feinstein) Democrats
Connecticut Democrats (Murphy) Democrats
Delaware Democrats (Carper) Democrats
Florida Republicans (Scott) Republicans
Hawaii Democrats (Hirono) Democrats
Indiana Republicans (Braun) Republicans
Main Independent (King)* Democrats
Maryland Democrats (Cardin) Democrats
Massachusetts Democrats (Warren) Democrats
Michigan Democrats (Stabenow) Democrats
Minnesota Democrats (Klobuchar) Democrats
Mississippi Republicans (Wicker) Republicans
Missouri Republicans (Hawley) Republicans
Montana Democrats (Tester) Republicans
Nebraska Republicans (Fischer)
Republicans (Ricketts)**
Nevada Democrats (Rosen) Democrats
New Jersey Democrats (Menendez) Democrats
New Mexico Democrats (Heinrich) Democrats
New York Democrats (Gillibrand) Democrats
North Dakota Republicans (Cramer) Republicans
Ohio Democrats (Brown) Republicans
Pennsylvania Democrats (Casey Jr.) Democrats
Rhode Island Democrats (Whitehouse) Democrats
Tennessee Republicans (Blackburn) Republicans
Texas Republicans (Cruz) Republicans
Utah Republicans (Romney) Republicans
Vermont Independent (Sanders)* Democrats
Virginia Democrats (Kaine) Democrats
Washington Democrats (Cantwell) Democrats
West Virginia Democrats (Manchin) Republicans
Wisconsin Democrats (Baldwin) Democrats
Wyoming Republicans (Borrasso) Republicans

*Caucuses with Democrats
**Special election

Three seats stand out; Montana, Ohio and West Virginia. All three are currently held by Democrats but swung to the GOP in the 2020 Presidential Elections. Losing these seats would certainly result in a shift in power in the US’s upper chamber.

2024 US Senate Elections: Battleground States

Let’s focus on those three key battleground states. What are the odds for each party and how this might all play out for Montana, Ohio and West Virginia?


Senate Elections: Odds To Win Montana
Party Odds
Democrats +200
Republicans -300

Odds as of July 2

Oddsmakers don’t like Democrats’ chances here. Like at all. Even though Tester has been in office since 2006, he’s quite vulnerable. Tester has never won with more than 50% of the vote in either of his three Senatorial elections. The races were close.

His main challenger at the moment is Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, who has already been endorsed by five US Senators. Tester is endorsed, so far, by Joe Manchin who’s one of the incumbents on our battleground list.

It’s not looking good for Tester. But look, there’s real value here in backing a candidate that has continuously won close elections. Tester knows what it takes to win in a state that has voted Republican since the 1996 Presidential Elections. 


Senate Elections: Odds To Win Ohio
Party Odds
Democrats +110
Republicans -150

Odds as of July 2

The odds favor the Republicans again, but it’s much closer than in Montana. Sherrod Brown has been a strong progressive Democrat since his election in 2006. He’s won with over 50% of the vote in each of his three Senatorial elections.

But the tides seem to be changing with Ohio voters. Brown’s base is blue-collar working class people and they’ve leaned red in recent years. Appealing to the working class might not have the same impact it once did. 

His main challenger is Matt Dolan. An Ohio State senator that lost a bid for the 2022 Republican nomination for the Senate to J.D. Vance. Dolan is also the son of Cleveland Guardians owner Larry Dolan. His rich roots might not resonate that well with the working-class Buckeyes.

West Virginia

Odds aren’t available for West Virginia just yet. But look, this is going to be a hotly contested seat. Incumbent Manchin is a Democrat in name only. The veteran Senator has been a thorn in Joe Biden’s side for a while mainly because Manchin stalled the Presiden’ts “Build Back Better” bill.

West Virginia voted heavily for Trump in 2020 with 69% of the state going Republican. That was the second-highest vote share for Trump after Wyoming’s 70%.

Democrats want to keep the seat and would love it if Machin wasn’t sitting in it. But can they hold only to it without him?

Republicans are confident they can take a seat that hasn’t been blue since 1958 when Robert Byrd defeated Chapman Revercomb.

All 100 US Senate Seats

Want to see how all 100 Senate seats are currently allocated in that 118th Congress and who sits on each? Good, we’ve got you set. 

US Senators In 118th Congress
State Party and Senator
Alabama Katie Boyd Britt (R)
Tommy Tuberville (R)
Alaska Lisa Murkowski (R)
Dan Sullivan (R)
Arizona Mark Kelly (D)
Kyrsten Sinema (I)*
Arkansas John Boozman (R)
Tom Cotton (R)
California Diane Feinstein (D)
Alex Padilla (D)
Colorado Michael F. Bennet (D)
John W. Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal (D)
Christopher Murphy (D)
Delaware Thomas R. Carper (D)
Christopher A. Coons (D)
Florida Marco Rubio (R)
Rick Scott (R)
Georgia Jon Ossoff (D)
Raphael G. Warnock (D)
Hawaii Mazie K. Hirono (D)
Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho Mike Crapo (R)
James E. Risch (R)
Illinois Tammy Duckworth (D)
Richard J. Durbin (D)
Indiana Todd Young (R)
Iowa Joni Ernst (R)
Chuck Grassley (R)
Kansas Roger Marshall (R)
Jerry Moran (R)
Kentucky Mitch McConnell (R)
Rand Paul (R)
Louisiana Bill Cassidy (R)
John Kennedy (R)
Maine Susan M. Collins (R)
Angus S. King Jr. (I)*
Maryland Benjamin L. Cardin (D)
Chris Van Hollen (D)
Massachusetts Edward J. Markey (D)
Elizabeth Warren (D)
Michigan Gary C. Peters (D)
Debbie Stabenow (D)
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar (D)
Tina Smith (D)
Mississippi Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Roger F. Wicker (R)
Missouri Josh Hawley (R)
Eric Schmitt (R)
Montana Steve Saines (R)
Jon Tester (D)
Nebraska Deb Fischer (R)
Pete Ricketts (R)
Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto (D)
Jacky Rosen (D)
New Hampshire Margaret Wood Hassan (D)
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey Cory A. Booker (D)
Robert Menendez (D)
New Mexico Martin Heinrich (D)
Ben Ray Lujan (D)
New York Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D)
Charles E. Schumer (D)
North Carolina Ted Budd (R)
Thom Tillis (R)
North Dakota Kevin Cramer (R)
John Hoeven (R)
Ohio Sherrod Brown (D)
J.D. Vance (R)
Oklahoma James Lankford (R)
Markwayne Mullin (R)
Oregon Jeff Merkley (D)
Ron Wyden (D)
Pennsylvania John Fetterman (D)
Robert P. Casey Jr. (D)
Rhode Island Jack Reed (D)
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
South Carolina Lindsey Graham (R)
Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota Mike Rounds (R)
John Thune (R)
Tennessee Marsha Blackburn (R)
Bill Hagerty (R)
Texas John Cornyn (R)
Ted Cruz (R)
Utah Mike Lee (R)
Mitt Romney (R)
Vermont Bernard Sanders (I)*
Peter Welch (D)
Virginia Tim Kaine (D)
Mark R. Warner (D)
Washington Maria Cantwell (D)
Patty Murray (D)
West Virginia Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Joe Manchin III (D)
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin (D)
Ron Johnson (R)
Wyoming John Barrasso (R)
Cynthia M. Lummis (R)

*Caucuses with Democrats

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