The Democrats enjoy a majority in the Senate due to VP Kamala Harris’s tiebreaker. That technicality might not be enough to give them control of the Senate in 2024.
Of the 34 Senate seats headed for an election in 2024, 20 (59%) are Democrat seats while 11 are held by Republicans. The Dems need to hold all of these seats and ideally gain. But as you’ll see with our political odds coverage that might not be possible.
How the 2020 US Presidential Election Impacts the 2024 US Senate Election?
I think it’s important to look at how the 2020 US Presidential Elections went in the states that will be represented in the 2024 US Senate Elections. Basically, we’re trying to see if recent voting patterns show a vulnerability.
Does the party of the incumbent Senator match how the state voted in the most recent Presidential Elections?
|State||Party of Senator||Presidential Election|
|New Jersey||Democrats (Menendez)||Democrats|
|New Mexico||Democrats (Heinrich)||Democrats|
|New York||Democrats (Gillibrand)||Democrats|
|North Dakota||Republicans (Cramer)||Republicans|
|Pennsylvania||Democrats (Casey Jr.)||Democrats|
|Rhode Island||Democrats (Whitehouse)||Democrats|
|West Virginia||Democrats (Manchin)||Republicans|
*Caucuses with Democrats
Three seats stand out; Montana, Ohio and West Virginia. All three are currently held by Democrats but swung to the GOP in the 2020 Presidential Elections. Losing these seats would certainly result in a shift in power in the US’s upper chamber.
2024 US Senate Elections: Battleground States
Let’s focus on those three key battleground states. What are the odds for each party and how this might all play out for Montana, Ohio and West Virginia?
Odds as of July 2
Oddsmakers don’t like Democrats’ chances here. Like at all. Even though Tester has been in office since 2006, he’s quite vulnerable. Tester has never won with more than 50% of the vote in either of his three Senatorial elections. The races were close.
His main challenger at the moment is Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, who has already been endorsed by five US Senators. Tester is endorsed, so far, by Joe Manchin who’s one of the incumbents on our battleground list.
It’s not looking good for Tester. But look, there’s real value here in backing a candidate that has continuously won close elections. Tester knows what it takes to win in a state that has voted Republican since the 1996 Presidential Elections.
Odds as of July 2
The odds favor the Republicans again, but it’s much closer than in Montana. Sherrod Brown has been a strong progressive Democrat since his election in 2006. He’s won with over 50% of the vote in each of his three Senatorial elections.
But the tides seem to be changing with Ohio voters. Brown’s base is blue-collar working class people and they’ve leaned red in recent years. Appealing to the working class might not have the same impact it once did.
His main challenger is Matt Dolan. An Ohio State senator that lost a bid for the 2022 Republican nomination for the Senate to J.D. Vance. Dolan is also the son of Cleveland Guardians owner Larry Dolan. His rich roots might not resonate that well with the working-class Buckeyes.
Odds aren’t available for West Virginia just yet. But look, this is going to be a hotly contested seat. Incumbent Manchin is a Democrat in name only. The veteran Senator has been a thorn in Joe Biden’s side for a while mainly because Manchin stalled the Presiden’ts “Build Back Better” bill.
West Virginia voted heavily for Trump in 2020 with 69% of the state going Republican. That was the second-highest vote share for Trump after Wyoming’s 70%.
Democrats want to keep the seat and would love it if Machin wasn’t sitting in it. But can they hold only to it without him?
Republicans are confident they can take a seat that hasn’t been blue since 1958 when Robert Byrd defeated Chapman Revercomb.
All 100 US Senate Seats
Want to see how all 100 Senate seats are currently allocated in that 118th Congress and who sits on each? Good, we’ve got you set.
|State||Party and Senator|
|Alabama||Katie Boyd Britt (R)
Tommy Tuberville (R)
|Alaska||Lisa Murkowski (R)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|Arizona||Mark Kelly (D)
Kyrsten Sinema (I)*
|Arkansas||John Boozman (R)
Tom Cotton (R)
|California||Diane Feinstein (D)
Alex Padilla (D)
|Colorado||Michael F. Bennet (D)
John W. Hickenlooper (D)
|Connecticut||Richard Blumenthal (D)
Christopher Murphy (D)
|Delaware||Thomas R. Carper (D)
Christopher A. Coons (D)
|Florida||Marco Rubio (R)
Rick Scott (R)
|Georgia||Jon Ossoff (D)
Raphael G. Warnock (D)
|Hawaii||Mazie K. Hirono (D)
Brian Schatz (D)
|Idaho||Mike Crapo (R)
James E. Risch (R)
|Illinois||Tammy Duckworth (D)
Richard J. Durbin (D)
|Indiana||Todd Young (R)|
|Iowa||Joni Ernst (R)
Chuck Grassley (R)
|Kansas||Roger Marshall (R)
Jerry Moran (R)
|Kentucky||Mitch McConnell (R)
Rand Paul (R)
|Louisiana||Bill Cassidy (R)
John Kennedy (R)
|Maine||Susan M. Collins (R)
Angus S. King Jr. (I)*
|Maryland||Benjamin L. Cardin (D)
Chris Van Hollen (D)
|Massachusetts||Edward J. Markey (D)
Elizabeth Warren (D)
|Michigan||Gary C. Peters (D)
Debbie Stabenow (D)
|Minnesota||Amy Klobuchar (D)
Tina Smith (D)
|Mississippi||Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Roger F. Wicker (R)
|Missouri||Josh Hawley (R)
Eric Schmitt (R)
|Montana||Steve Saines (R)
Jon Tester (D)
|Nebraska||Deb Fischer (R)
Pete Ricketts (R)
|Nevada||Catherine Cortez Masto (D)
Jacky Rosen (D)
|New Hampshire||Margaret Wood Hassan (D)
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
|New Jersey||Cory A. Booker (D)
Robert Menendez (D)
|New Mexico||Martin Heinrich (D)
Ben Ray Lujan (D)
|New York||Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D)
Charles E. Schumer (D)
|North Carolina||Ted Budd (R)
Thom Tillis (R)
|North Dakota||Kevin Cramer (R)
John Hoeven (R)
|Ohio||Sherrod Brown (D)
J.D. Vance (R)
|Oklahoma||James Lankford (R)
Markwayne Mullin (R)
|Oregon||Jeff Merkley (D)
Ron Wyden (D)
|Pennsylvania||John Fetterman (D)
Robert P. Casey Jr. (D)
|Rhode Island||Jack Reed (D)
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
|South Carolina||Lindsey Graham (R)
Tim Scott (R)
|South Dakota||Mike Rounds (R)
John Thune (R)
|Tennessee||Marsha Blackburn (R)
Bill Hagerty (R)
|Texas||John Cornyn (R)
Ted Cruz (R)
|Utah||Mike Lee (R)
Mitt Romney (R)
|Vermont||Bernard Sanders (I)*
Peter Welch (D)
|Virginia||Tim Kaine (D)
Mark R. Warner (D)
|Washington||Maria Cantwell (D)
Patty Murray (D)
|West Virginia||Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Joe Manchin III (D)
|Wisconsin||Tammy Baldwin (D)
Ron Johnson (R)
|Wyoming||John Barrasso (R)
Cynthia M. Lummis (R)
*Caucuses with Democrats