Everyone, please welcome Andy Williams! Sing along!
It’s the most wonderful time of the year ….
Ah yes. We have arrived. The most wonderful time of the year. Malls and Targets and Walmarts are lousy with Christmas stuff, Thanksgiving is less than two weeks away, Daylight Saving Time has ended — it’s the most wonderful time of the year!
Except for NFL bettors who also dip their toes in the NBA streets, like yours truly. For me, this is the most dangerous stretch of highway on the entire betting calendar.
Um, ladies and gentlemen, Creedence Clearwater Revival!
Basically, after spending the last two months neck deep in NFL minutiae all week, I’m now neck deep in NFL minutiae all week and NBA minutiae all day. It is, as it turns out, too much, especially with my job and my side gigs and three kids and two dogs and one wife.
This happens to me every year, and every year I promise myself I won’t even think of the letters “N-B-A” until January, and every year some early season five-game Tuesday NBA slate rolls in, and every year I say, “Eh, I’ll throw a $4 DFS entry in here,” and before you can say “Aaron Gordon’s rebounds go significantly up per 36 minutes with Jamal Murray off the floor,” (h/t Rotogrinders Morning Grind pod) I’m locked in.
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As a result, I’m all-in on the NFL and the NBA, and while it’s fun, it’s also … not that fun. It does, in fact, start to feel a little like a grind, and I’m sure my NFL prognostication skills — rank amateur at best — suffer for it.
So don’t tail me is basically what I’m saying. Except for the Aaron Gordon rebound props, until they go over 6.5 at America’s sportsbooks.
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
We’re 0-for-9. Whatever. Onward and upward.
This week, I’m moving over to FanDuel, where I’m going to try and SGP my way into the winner’s circle. This one is stupid.
It’s over 38.5 in the Titans-Bucs game. This game feels wacky to me. Both teams have pass-funnel defenses, and both teams have hair-on-fire quarterbacks at the helm. Would it be so shocking to see some defensive touchdowns while we’re at it?
So here are two bets: First one is the over, matched with a Tampa defensive touchdown and Will Levis over 215.5 passing yards. This comes in at +1398.
The other is more reasonable: Total over, Levis over, DeAndre Hopkins touchdown, Mike Evans touchdown. This is +1003.
Will Levis holy jeeeez pic.twitter.com/ofWYGAXHb1
— AntiClowNFL (@ClowNFL) November 3, 2023
I promise, back to normal stupid parlays next week.
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Fourth loss in a row, down to a still profitable but getting too close 4-5. Last week, to quote Warner Wolf, if you had the Seahawks and 12 points, you still lost, and I had the Seahawks.
This week, at BetMGM, I’m taking the three most obvious teaser candidates: The Bengals -1 at home over the Texans, the Ravens getting a half-point at home against the Browns, and the Bills giving 1.5 points at home against the Broncos. These are clear as day plays, bound to lose.
Favorite that makes me nervous
Fell to 3-6, as I said the Chargers made me nervous against the Jets. Hoo boy.
This week, it’s the Saints giving three to the Vikings in Minnesota. I don’t think Minnesota is particularly fearsome, but neither are the Saints. Am I betting this? I am not. But it feels more like a pick’em to me.
Player props I like
Went 3-2 last week, up to 16-17 on the year. This week, it’s …
Will Levis, over 212.5 passing yards, BetRivers, -113: Yeah, I’m all about Levis this week.
Jerome Ford, over 2.5 receptions, +104, Caesars: The preferred back for the Browns, the preferred passing back for the Browns, and that’s about that there. Especially tasty if the Ravens jump out to an early lead.
Taysom Hill, anytime touchdown, +290, BetMGM: Simply too high a line for the role Hill has had the last month.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
I entered 12 times and cashed zero times. I hate this part of the column.
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
All right, down to 4-5, took the freaking Patriots last week, sheesh.
This week, slamming the over 38.5 in the Titans-Bucs game. I really like this one.