Three things, NFL-related, that are keeping me up at night …
Swift and Kelce
I mean, this is the biggest non-football NFL story since … I mean, I don’t even know. This is the best tight end in the game — possibly the best tight end of all time — playing for a Super Bowl championship team, and he’s dating the biggest pop star in America. And it’s not like Swift is just the flavor of the month — she’s been a superstar for a decade-plus and has catapulted into the stratosphere of fame.
So yeah. I’d say the Kelce-Swift romance is right up there when it comes to identifying the biggest pop culture moments of the year (and decade) (and probably century).
#TaylorSwift Cheers on Travis Kelce with Enthusiasm and Support
— 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐝 𝐃𝐢𝐚𝐫𝐲 (@TheHeraldDiary) October 13, 2023
Bill Belichick
Remember when we used to wonder if the Patriots’ dominance was tied more to Bill Belichick or tied more to Tom Brady?
Yeah, I don’t think we’re wondering anymore. And it’s painfully clear the game has somehow passed Belichick by. It’s almost sad at this point.
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Bill Belichick when Drake Maye or Caleb Williams is available to draft, but instead trades back for a special teams gunner from Navy pic.twitter.com/FUYxLrVxVq
— BrycenNFL 👑 (@BrycenNFL) October 13, 2023
Turn-off injuries
This last week was just dreadful, as three of the most electrifying players in the NFL — rookies Anthony Richardson and De’Von Achane and consensus WR1 Justin Jefferson — are all out for at least a month, and probably more.
This, on the heels of Austin Ekeler missing the last month, Nick Chubb being out for the year, J.K. Dobbins being out for the year, Aaron Rodgers playing four snaps …
Sure, injuries happen, but this year seems particularly gruesome.
All right, enough. I’m getting depressed. Let’s get to the sportsbooks, yeah?
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
OK, we’re 0-for-5 here, no worries, plenty of time to get this right.
Hopefully this is the week. Here we go …
Over at DraftKings, let’s go Bears +130 over the Vikings, the Lions -3 over the Bucs, the Chargers outright over the Cowboys at +110, and the Eagles as a -325 moneyline favorite. Those all kick this thing up to +1066.
Rationale: Someone lit a fire under the Bears, and without Justin Jefferson, on the road, in lousy weather, are we sure the 1-4 Vikings show up? As for the Lions, I think this is the most disrespectful line I’ve seen all year. The Chargers? Come on. Dallas is circling the drain, and Los Angeles is coming off a bye. As for the Eagles, they’re playing Zach Wilson, whom I’m not going to believe in just yet or probably ever.
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
I am the best teaser. I’m King Tease. I’m like Buddy Freaking Hinton.
Won again last week (Texans +7.5, Jets +8.5, and Lions -4), and this week am going back to BetMGM for the Eagles -1 over the Jets, the Rams -1 over the Cards, and the Chargers +8.5 against the Cowboys.
Let me reason with you: The Eagles are clearly going to beat the Jets, the Rams are not-so-sneaky pretty good while the Cards are who we thought they are, and Kellen Moore is going to pull out all the offensive stops against the Cowboys. (And the Chargers are just a better team anyway.)
Can we get this to 5-1? I think so. (If you want to get crazy, throw in the 49ers -3.5 and the Lions +3 and take this all the way to +400.)
Favorite that makes me nervous
Fell to 3-2, and I’m aggravated about it. Said the Falcons made me nervous as 1.5-point favorites over the Texans. They closed as 2-point favorites. Wish I waited, because at 1.5, they covered. At -2, they pushed.
Alas.
This week’s favorite that makes me nervous is Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite against the Chargers. I mean, we have seen the Cowboys play over the last few weeks, yeah? And Mike McCarthy is looking positively Belichickian in the “Uh-oh, has the game passed him by?” kind of way. And Jerry Jones is meddling per usual, saying “more tight ends, less CeeDee Lamb,” which is like saying, “more gristle, less filet mignon.”
Jerry Jones on getting CeeDee Lamb more involved (via 105.3 The Fan): “I don’t know about that … I like seeing the ball go to tight ends.”
CeeDee Lamb through 5 weeks:
2022: 50 targets
2023: 35 targets— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) October 10, 2023
So yeah, the Cowboys make me nervous.
Player props I like
Went two for three again last week, raising the season record to 10-10. Hit on the Wan’Dale over receptions prop and the Hollywood Brown yardage, lost a +195 flyer on Zach Wilson throwing over 1.5 touchdowns.
This week …
- Trevor Lawrence under 255.5 passing yards, at -115 at PointsBet: Lawrence has never surpassed this number against the Colts and Gus Bradley’s pass defense. He’ll complete a ton of passes, but the scheme is designed to take away big plays. Not thrilled with this bet, but numbers don’t lie.
- Josh Jacobs over 65.5 rushing yards, -115 at PointsBet: Jacobs is the workhorse of workhorses, the Raiders are home favorites, the Patriots aren’t exactly the “Patriots.”
- Adam Thielen over 5.5 receptions, -120 at bet365: Thielen has been doubling this number routinely, and the Dolphins have gotten smoked by opposing slot receivers all year per The Workbook at One Week Season.
- Logan Thomas anytime TD, +400 at bet365: He’s at like +270 everywhere else, so I love the number. I also love the way the Commanders are using Thomas. Very similar to how the Chiefs are using Taylor Swift’s boyfriend.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
We are not taking questions at this time.
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
And the Texans -1.5 burned me here, so down to 2-3. This week, gimme the Lions giving a field goal to the Bucs. This line feels like it should be a touchdown.
