Mahomes Slides, Bettors Cry, Coolio Rides

“Slide, slide, slippity-slide, when you’re living in the city it’s do or die.”

Yes, I’m quoting the since-deceased poet Coolio from his 1994 smash hit single, “Fantastic Voyage.” And before we go any further, please do yourself a favor and watch the video below from MTV’s The Grind. The 1990s were weird, as it turns out. Holy smokes.

But yes: Slide, slide, slippity-slide, Mahomes went down and people cried.

Chiefs -7.5 bettors watching Patrick Mahomes slide on the goal line: pic.twitter.com/vjbQcOFm9G

— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) October 2, 2023

Of course, as soon as Patrick Mahomes slid instead of scored against the Jets on Sunday night, icing the game and icing out Chiefs spread bettors, people started crying for refunds and/or crying about how the NFL is in cahoots with Vegas to fix games. (I hate posting tweets like the one below, but it pretty much covers the sentiment from a certain segment of the population.)

FYI: The Mahomes slide ALONE ON THE FREKAIN 1 YARD cost betters a estimated $589 MILLION which the @NFL and Vegas pocketed! Had the #Jets one THEY LOSE EVERY $ OF THAT TO BETTER ON THE OTHER SIDE! WAKE UP SHEEPLE! @FormerNFLFan789 @Chiefs @nyjets

— The King Source: All Things Sports with ADAM KING (@TheKingSource) October 4, 2023

I mean, I get why some sportsbooks hand out “bad beat” refunds. Honestly, it’s top-level customer service. Guy gets hurt on the first play, whatever, refund the money, no big deal. I have zero problem with it.

I also get why some other sportsbooks don’t give refunds. They offer better prices to start, and gambling is called gambling for a reason.

But the Mahomes slide … come on. That’s just the game. There was zero reason for Mahomes to score there. If he slides, the game is over. The Jets have zero chance to win. If Mahomes scores, the Jets could have conceivably scored, recovered the onside kick, and scored again. Likely? Of course not. But possible.

If I were the coach and Mahomes didn’t slide, he would’ve gotten an earful from me. In the end, perhaps another line from “Fantastic Voyage” sums up the situation for would-be bettors:

“If you can’t take the heat, get your ass out the kitchen.”

The +1000 or more parlay of the week

Nope, didn’t hit the +5710 parlay last week, but I came a little closer than expected. Hit the over in Rams-Colts and Broncos-Bears, the Chargers covered against the Raiders, and the Titans won outright. Then the Cardinals gave up a Brock Purdy sneak with less than two minutes left, and they didn’t cover, which is just as well, because I would’ve lost on the Slide Heard ‘Round the World.

I’d estimate conservatively that $80 million was bet on Chiefs-Jets around the US, with 80-90% of the money on favored Kansas City.

Mahomes’ heady decision to slide before scoring a TD that would’ve covered the spread undoubtedly caused an 8-figure swing in favor of the books.

— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) October 2, 2023

This week, it took me all of 20 seconds to land where I landed. Booked it a little earlier in the week. It’s the Texans outright over the Falcons, the Ravens giving 4 points to the Steelers, the Jets outright over Denver, and the Niners giving 3.5 points to the Cowboys.

Rationale: The Texans might not be a surprise, they might actually be good, and if they happen to jump out to a lead, the Falcons are not built to come back; if the Steelers had the same exact personnel but were the “Cardinals” or the “Jaguars” or anyone besides the “Cowboys,” this would be at least 6.5 points; the Jets are playing tough and the Broncos aren’t; and much like the Steelers bump, I think the Niners would be 5.5-point favorites if the Cowboys had a different name.

This one clocks in at +1589 at DraftKings. Let’s get ‘er done.

The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose

Don’t look now, but I’ve run the season record to 3-1 on these +160 teasers. Won not-so-easily last week with the Ravens getting 9 points against the Browns (easy), the Eagles giving 2.5 points to the Commanders (not easy) and the Chiefs giving 2.5 points to the Jets (slide!).

This week … not in love with this, but let’s go Texans +7.5 against Atlanta, the Jets +8.5 against the Broncos, and the Lions giving 4 points to the Panthers.

I love the Texans, really like the Jets, and hate going from 10 to 4 on the Lions, but they should dominate this game start to finish. It’s +160 for the win at BetMGM.

Favorite that makes me nervous

Also upped my record here to 3-1, wondering — rightly so — just what in Sam Hill the Steelers were doing being 2.5-point favorites over the Texans. “Not shocked to see the Texans dominate,” I wrote, which proved prophetic.

You know what? One more time. The Falcons are 1.5-point favorites over the Texans. At minimum, this line should be flipped. 

Player props I like

Went two for three last week, raising the season record to 8-9, hitting JaMarr Chase over 6.5 receptions at -130 and Josh Allen anytime touchdown at +150. Lost Raheem Mostert rushing yards. 

This week …

• Wan’Dale Robinson, over 3.5 receptions at -130 at BetMGM. He’s hit this number in both games he’s played on limited, but growing, snaps. I love this bet. I’d make this two units. (Please don’t listen to me.)
• Zach Wilson, over 1.5 touchdown passes at +195 at bet365. I mean, I love the odds, hate the number. But Wilson actually looked good last week, and it is the Denver defense, which has given up (checks notes) 5,728 touchdowns so far this year.
• Hollywood Brown, over 50.5 yards at -110 at PointsBet. Number just too low for a guy getting the target volume (27 in the last three weeks) he’s getting.

Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?

Yes.

Really?!?!?

My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week

Got back to .500 here with the Chargers giving 5.5 points to the Raiders.

This week, I’m going with the Texans getting 1.5 points. They’re simply a better team than the Falcons.