The term “paths to failure” sounds like a Foo Fighters song, but it’s not. It’s more or less how I look at life.
I’m not proud of this, but it’s true nonetheless.
I’m the kind of guy who might’ve spotted a young lady at a bar back in my 20s. I might’ve told my buddy I thought she was hot. My buddy might’ve said to me, “Go talk to her!” And instead of talking to her, I’d imagine talking to her, and think, “But what if she’s not interested?”
OK, but what if she is? Maybe we’d get together. But then I’d think, “What if we break up?”
OK, but what if we don’t? Maybe we’ll get married! But then the thought: “Yeah, but, you know, divorce rates are so high.”
The upshot is this: What’s the point of even talking to her? There are too many paths to failure.
And while this stupid attitude probably has cost me in life, love, employment, friendships, and virtually every other aspect of my life, it has been pretty good to me when I look at gambling — specifically DFS.
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For instance, let’s explore this week’s game between the Chargers and the Vikings. The total is set at 54, the game is in a dome, both offenses can be dynamite, there are tons of awesome skill position players on either side of the ball, plus there’s the definite whiff of desperation, as both teams are 0-2.
This game should go off.
But there are paths to failure, and I’m going to take advantage.
Sure, I’m going to build some tournament teams featuring Justin Jefferson and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Kirk Cousins and Justin Herbert, but I’m also going to build a few teams featuring just one player from this game: Alexander Mattison, the same Alexander Mattison who has been terrible, the same Alexander Mattison who just saw his team trade for Cam Akers.
Alexander Mattison seeing Cam Akers show up to practicepic.twitter.com/8iW9pVQ7lD
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 20, 2023
The Chargers are willing to give up the run. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is willing to take what defenses will give him. Is there a scenario in which Mattison gets 25 carries, plods out 100 yards or so, manages a touchdown or two, and posts a DFS-tourney-winning score?
Will most people be staying far away from this? At our sister site RotoGrinders, he’s at 9.7% ownership, and I think that’s double what he comes in at.
Alexander Mattison is this game’s path to failure.
And so for any 20-something guys out there who are hitting the bars this weekend, when you see a pretty young woman on the other side of the room, just take a deep breath, walk on over, and whisper “Alexander Mattison” in her ear. I guarantee this will work (much in the same way I guarantee all the bets below placed at America’s fine sportsbooks will work).
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Well, as Meatloaf didn’t famously sing, three outta four ain’t bad.
Did I have the over in the Lions-Seahawks game last week? I did. Did I have the over in the Bucs-Bears tilt? I did. Did I have the Cowboys beating the Jets? I did. Did I have the Jaguars beating the Chiefs? I did.
Sadly, that last one didn’t pan out, though it kinda almost did, and that would have changed the tenor of this sad song, but alas. Onward, upward, etc.
This week’s play is at DraftKings. I’m taking the Commanders +6.5 points at home against the Bills, the Patriots -2.5 points on the road against the Jets, the Seahawks giving 6 points to the Panthers at home, and over 43 in the Steelers-Raiders game, for a +1223 bet.
Rationale: The Commanders are pesky, and the 6.5 points at home is too much; the Patriots are playing against Zach Wilson; the Seahawks would be 10-point favorites if they didn’t blunder through Week 1 against the Rams; and the Steelers and Raiders have combined through two weeks to average a little over 47 minutes of time of possession per game, which means there’s nearly a quarter of offensive plays just waiting to be played for these two powerhouse* offenses. (*Compared to my 1-8 1990 Parsippany High School football team.)
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Hey! We won last week! Bills giving 2.5 to Las Vegas, the 49ers giving 1.5 points to the Rams, and the Cowboys giving a field goal to the Jets. Easy squeezy peasy.
Let’s win again, yeah?
Sticking with my good luck charm at BetMGM, let’s go with the Dolphins giving a half-point at home to the Broncos, the Seahawks down to a pick ’em at home versus the Panthers, and … I’m torn. I like the Bills giving a half-point to the Commanders in D.C., I like the Eagles getting a half-point in Tampa, and I like over 37 in the Steelers-Raiders game.
In the end, I’m going with the Eagles. Book it at +160. I’m crossing the zero. Alert the authorities.
Favorite that makes me nervous
Dropped to 1-1 here as the Chiefs covered the 3.5 points in Jacksonville. This week, the team that makes me the most nervous as favorites is easily — and how’s this for a shocking turn of events — the Jaguars as 9.5-point favorites over the Texans.
Are the Jags a better team? Uh-huh. Could they win this game 35-0? Mmm hmm.
But the Texans are not playing like the Texans. They are letting C.J. Stroud rip it when playing from behind. This has a Tank Dell touchdown for a backdoor cover with 32 seconds left written all over it.
Player props I like
Last week I got Joe Burrow under 10.5 yards rushing and Keenan Allen over 6.5 receptions, but lost Matt Stafford under 4.5 rushing and Tyler Allgeier anytime touchdown. The season record now stands at 3-5.
Here’s this week’s card as of Friday morning:
- Brian Robinson Jr., anytime touchdown, +162 at bet365: He touches the ball too much for this number to be this high. Dating back to last year, he has 15 or more touches every week since Week 10. And he seems to have the backfield largely to himself.
- Kenneth Walker III anytime touchdown, +100 at Caesars: The Panthers have been toasted by the Falcons and, more or less, by the Saints on the ground through the first two weeks, and Walker is a threat to rip one every time he touches the ball.
- Jalen Hurts, anytime touchdown, +130 at Barstool: Simply too good a number to pass up for a guy who punched in 13 scores last year and two already this year.
- Puka Nacua, anytime touchdown, +205 at DraftKings: He touches the ball approximately 732 times a game and hasn’t scored yet.
- Most passing yards on Sunday: C.J. Stroud, +2500, DraftKings: As stated earlier, they let this guy rip. Why not?
- Elijah Moore, over 3.5 receptions, +125 at bet365: The Titans are the biggest pass funnel going, and Moore has 16 targets on the year.
Did I win the (or a) DraftKings Milly Maker?
Do I look like someone who patrols squirrels?
🐿️ Congrats again to @jbresl winning Monday’s DraftKings Milly Maker!
To celebrate, we’re giving away 10 weekly passes to RG Premium. To enter:
1) Join the RG Discord: https://t.co/vgwgh4qeLx
2) Go to the Giveaways channel
3) Hit the “Like” button on the image
Deadline is 9/20 pic.twitter.com/AiJGqsxOOR
— RotoGrinders (@RotoGrinders) September 19, 2023
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
I had the over in Bears-Bucs last week. Good for me. That evens things out at 1-1.
This week, give me another stupid over, this one at 43 in that stupid Steelers-Raiders game. Man, that is a stupid sounding wager. Godspeed to us all.