When you pit the No. 1 defense in the NFL in Week 1 against a team that had the third-highest number of sacks in its 2023 opener, it seems unlikely that too many points will be scored. That’s what the Cowboys-Jets matchup looks like. In Week 1, the Cowboys allowed a league-low 63 yards of offense while the Jets were one of three teams to record five sacks. Both teams came away winners, so a duel of defenses seems to make the under (38.5) a solid pick. That’s just one of five offerings from our colleagues at Action Network.
The over-under is a popular pick among by Action Network picks this week, highlighted in three of the five picks below.
Every weekend throughout the NFL season, Sports Handle will bring you five “Best Bets” from Action Network‘s experts, including their research and arguments for why each pick is a good bet.
Ravens vs. Bengals
Pick: Ravens +3.5
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on CBS
Anthony Dabbundo: Joe Burrow had one of the worst games of his professional career in Week 1 in a 24-3 road loss to Cleveland, going 14-for-31 for 82 yards. It marked the second consecutive year that the Bengals had a poor offensive showing in a Week 1 defeat. While the Ravens cruised to a comfortable victory at home against the Texans, the injuries are already starting to pile up for Baltimore again.
Lamar Jackson said after the game that he felt rusty, which makes sense when you consider that he hadn’t played since the midway point of last season. Jackson played at an MVP level in the first half of 2022 despite having no real receiving threats beyond Mark Andrews. Now with real options, as well as a new coordinator and scheme, I only expect Baltimore to trend up.
The market opened at Cincinnati -3 and moved immediately to -3.5, likely from all of the Ravens injuries. The majority of books have moved the line back to three, but there are still some 3.5s in the market worth scooping up prior to kickoff.
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For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
Book: bet365
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on CBS
Cody Goggin: Kansas City seems to be getting everyone — notably, Travis Kelce — back at the right time. The Chiefs will be at full strength as they take on Jacksonville in a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional Round playoff game.
Jacksonville’s offensive line concerns me. Left tackle Cam Robinson is suspended for the first four games of the season and the Jaguars are also replacing right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who signed with the Chiefs in free agency. Additionally, the injury bug has started to bite as guard Brandon Scherff and center Luke Fortner are both questionable.
Trevor Lawrence also hasn’t held up well under pressure. Out of 19 QBs who took 50% of their team’s dropbacks last year, Lawrence ranked 17th in PFF passing grade with an atrocious 29.5.
In the end, I think this sets up well for Kansas City to get back on track. The Chiefs have a three-day rest advantage and are getting back key contributors on defense (Chris Jones) and offense (Kelce).
For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
49ers vs. Rams
Pick: 49ers Team Total Over 26.5
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET on Fox
Ricky Henne: The 49ers have bulldozed opponents since Brock Purdy took over late last year. San Francisco put on another electric performance in its season opener and have shown no signs of letting up, which is why I’m all over the team total against the Rams.
The 49ers have had their way with the Rams in the Kyle Shanahan era, averaging 27.4 points per game across 12 regular-season contests. If you take out a dud performance in 2018 in which they scored 10 points — the only time they’ve scored fewer than 20 against the Rams — they’re averaging 29.0 PPG.
For what it’s worth, team totals between 24.5-26.5 are some of my favorites when it comes to electric offenses. Scoring either four touchdowns, or three with a couple field goals, are simple paths for the over to hit.
For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
Jets vs. Cowboys
Pick: Under 38.5
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
John LanFranca: There are still questions to be answered in regards to both the Jets and Cowboys on the offensive side of the ball, but we have no questions about their defensive units. The Cowboys finished the week as the No. 1 defense in the NFL, according to DVOA, and the Jets defense rallied to stymie one of the top offenses in football.
In the 22 games Zach Wilson has started for the Jets, the under has cashed in 59.1% of them. In games where the total closes below 40, the under has cashed at 100% rate when Wilson is leading the charge.
Furthermore, while his opposition in this game, Dak Prescott, has not started many games in his career with this low of a total, we have seen 12 games in which the over/under closed at 42.5 or lower. The under has paid out at a 66.6% rate in those 12 contests.
For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Pick: Under 46.5
Book: bet365
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
Chris Raybon: With the Bills losing to the Jets in Week 1 and the Jets losing quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the season, Patriots vs. Dolphins has suddenly taken on added importance in both the AFC East and playoff race.
The Dolphins offense should be one of the league’s best as long as Tua Tagovailoa is upright, but I’d still expect it to come back to earth a bit in Week 2. For one, Miami won’t be facing a Chargers defense that has allowed 60 points in its past six quarters, dating back to last year’s playoff loss against the Jaguars. Secondly, the Patriots defense was impressive in Week 1 and held the Eagles to just 251 yards on 61 plays (4.1 yards per play). Most importantly, the Patriots allowed only one explosive pass play of 16 or more yards.
Divisional games tend to be lower scoring, and this is a matchup between two of the best defensive minds in the game in Bill Belichick and Vic Fangio. According to the Action Labs database, Week 2 divisional totals that opened 43 or higher are 44-22 (67%) toward the under since 2005, covering by 3.3 points per game.
For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
