With conference tournament play underway this week, the countdown to Selection Sunday for the unveiling of the NCAA Tournament’s field of 68 has begun in earnest. There are obvious favorites in expected No. 1 seeds Purdue, Houston, and defending champion Connecticut, but there is always a chance a lesser-known team can pull off a few shining moments to find its way to Phoenix come early April.
Each year, it becomes more difficult to find those teams capable of winning four games over two weekends to make it to college basketball’s Holy Grail — the Final Four. The popularity of season-long bracketology means every team’s profile is highly scrutinized, which puts a premium on line shopping for the best futures odds in sports betting markets.
Last year was a NCAA Tournament for the ages: All four No. 1 seeds failed to reach even the regional final as a No. 4 seed, two No. 5 seeds and a No. 9 seed found their way to Houston. Two of those teams — Connecticut and San Diego State — were in the NCAA Selection Committee’s Top 16 released last month while Florida Atlantic again lurks in the middle of the pack.
The criteria for a sleeper is simple: Any team not in the NCAA Committee’s Top 16 was eligible to be picked. The teams are ranked in order from longest of the longshots to most plausible longshot to make a Final Four run, and all futures odds are as of Thursday morning.
Utah State Aggies (25-5, Mountain West)
Best Final Four odds: +2800 at FanDuel; +2700 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Is it possible to have some Mountain West magic in the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year? Why not? The Aggies are no stranger to March Madness with three appearances the last four times the tournament was held. This time around, though, Utah State is angling to be in the top-half of the draw for only the second time since seeds were introduced 1979. It was a No. 8 seed in 2019.
Danny Sprinkle, in his first season at Utah State after leading Montana State to back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances, brought some Bozeman flavor to Logan as transfers Great Osobor and Darius Brown II are integral parts of the offense. Osobor is averaging 17.5 points on 57.8% shooting while Brown is contributing 12.2 points and 6.3 assists per game — the latter good for 14th in the nation — while shooting 40.7 percent from 3-point range.
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The Aggies, though, do their best work inside the arc on offense. They rank 13th in the country in 2-point shooting at 57.4% and entered play Thursday ranked 40th in offensive efficiency on KenPom at 116.1 points per 100 possessions. Utah State shines on the defensive end on the perimeter, ranking third in holding opponents to 27.9% shooting from beyond the arc.
Utah State does not have a marquee non-conference victory. Its best win came versus San Francisco in Salt Lake City, but the Aggies split eight games against fellow Mountain West teams with viable NCAA Tournament hopes. The Aggies close their regular season at home Saturday with an opportunity to pick up a resume-building win and split with New Mexico.
A lack of NCAA Tournament success for both Sprinkle and Utah State is a concern. His Montana State teams absorbed double-digit losses as No. 14 seeds each of the last two seasons, and the Aggies have lost nine consecutive first-round games since upsetting Ohio State as a No. 12 seed in 2001.
Washington State Cougars (23-7, Pac-12)
Best Final Four odds: +2200 at DraftKings and Betway
It is a feel-good story on the Palouse as the Cougars are in line for their first NCAA Tournament appearance since making the regional semifinals in 2008. Kyle Smith has had Washington State banging on the door the last two seasons with NIT appearances, and his team has broken through this time behind the 1-2 punch of guard Myles Rice and forward Isaac Jones.
Rice, a redshirt freshman, is averaging 15.5 points and 3.8 assists, while Jones, a transfer from Idaho, is chipping in 15.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per contest. Forwards Andrej Jakimovski and Jaylen Wells have combined for 117 3-pointers, with Wells second in the Pac-12 in accuracy at 44.5% from deep.
The Cougars are an efficient half-court team content to keep the tempo slow, but nothing stands out at an elite level. They work hard on the boards — the plus-5.6 rebound margin per game ranks just outside the Top 30 nationally — and are in the top 40 for defensive 2-point field goal percentage (46.1%).
There is not a lot of sizzle to Washington State’s resume, save its sweep of Arizona. The Cougars have an outside chance of winning the Pac-12 outright with a victory over Washington and a pair of losses by the Wildcats on the road against UCLA and USC, but a win over the Huskies and an Arizona split would make Washington State the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament.
South Carolina Gamecocks (24-6, SEC)
Best Final Four odds: +2500 at Caesars; +2300 at Fanatics Sportsbook
You may remember the 2017 NCAA Tournament when the seventh-seeded Gamecocks made a shocking run to the Final Four thanks to a physical defensive style of play while coach Frank Martin glared holes through anything and anyone who displeased him.
It is also the last time South Carolina appeared in the NCAA Tournament, with that drought set to end this year under second-year coach Lamont Paris. He has engineered a stunning turnaround from an 11-win team last season, building around holdover and leading scorer Meechie Johnson (14.3 points per game) through both the transfer portal and recruiting.
Transfers B.J. Mack (Wofford), Ta’Lon Cooper (Minnesota), and Myles Stute (Vanderbilt) have provided support for Johnson on the perimeter as South Carolina has 248 3-pointers and is on pace to better the school record of 262 set in 2005-06. Freshman Collin Murray-Boyles (10.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg) does the dirty work underneath as an undersized forward and leads the team with 22 blocks despite standing only 6-foot-7.
Defensively, South Carolina makes opponents work. It ranks 30th in 2-point defensive field goal percentage (45.9%) and is just outside the Top 40 in effective field goal percentage (47.1%). The Gamecocks share the ball offensively, getting assists on more than 60% of their baskets.
Paris’ team has shown its mettle in the rigorous SEC, winning at regular-season champion Tennessee and Arkansas as well as beating Kentucky and Florida at home. The lack of NCAA Tournament experience is a concern, though Paris made two trips with Chattanooga before arriving in Columbia.
BYU Cougars (21-9, Big 12)
Best Final Four odds: +1600 at FanDuel; +1400 at DraftKings, Fanatics Sportsbook, and Betfred
Arguably the most balanced offensive team in the country, BYU proved a quick study of the rigors of Big 12 play and is set for its first NCAA Tournament appearance in three years. Mark Pope’s team shoots — and makes — a lot of 3-pointers. BYU ranks fourth in the nation with 337 treys and more than half of its attempts come from beyond the arc.
The Cougars’ balance is two-fold as seven players average at least 9.3 points and seven players have made at least 24 3-pointers. Jaxson Robinson is at the top of the list in both categories, averaging 13.7 points with 68 3-pointers while shooting 34.9% from long range. Trevin Knell is the most accurate of the bunch, connecting at a 39.5% clip and right behind Robinson with 64 makes while scoring 11.2 points per contest.
When the Cougars do shoot inside the arc, they are lethal — ranking ninth in the country at 58.1%. They are also sixth in percentage of assists on field goals made at 63%. Defensively, BYU does a good job on the glass and can extend to the perimeter, holding opponents to 31.1% shooting from beyond the arc.
BYU’s best non-conference win came over San Diego State at home, while its signature win came at Kansas. The Cougars have split 10 games against Big 12 rivals likely to be in the NCAA Tournament, so they are plenty battle-tested. It comes down to whether or not they can have multiple shooters hot for multiple games over two weekends.
Michigan State Spartans (18-12, Big Ten)
Best Final Four odds: +1900 at FanDuel; +1800 at DraftKings
As much as the Spartans are the most likely suspect to go on a patented March tear and reach their ninth Final Four under Tom Izzo, this team also has the capability to throw in a clunker and make a first-round exit.
Still, underestimate Tom Izzo and company at your own peril. Tyson Walker is averaging 18.0 points and 3.0 assists and part of a formidable three-man backcourt with A.J. Hoggard (10.9 ppg, 5.0 apg) and Jaden Akins (10.5 ppg). Forward Malik Hall (12.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg) anchors the frontcourt, and Izzo has gone eight and nine deep on a consistent basis.
Michigan State’s greatest strength may be its adaptability to tempo: It has won games in the 50s all the way through the 90s. The rebounding advantage is not as pronounced as in seasons past, but the Spartans value the basketball — their 9.7 turnovers per game are tied for 18th-fewest in the nation. There remain worries about the team’s 3-point shooting, however. The 36.2% overall figure looks respectable, but the Spartans have shot under 30% from deep on 10 occasions.
Izzo’s team has answered the bell numerous times when it was teetering this season, getting a non-conference win over Baylor after losses to James Madison, Duke, and Arizona, and shaking off a 1-4 start in conference play. A 1-7 record against teams above it in the Big Ten standings likely puts Michigan State against an elite team in the second round should it advance, but recall the Spartans made the Sweet 16 as a No. 7 seed last year and the Final Four as a No. 7 seed in 2015.
